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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • The “what percentage do you think” vs “what percentage are” would be much better either as a scatterplot with a y=x line, or as a ratio (think/are) vs actual percent

    Here’s a rough plot of the second thing. There’s a number of issues with it but I think it more clearly conveys the crucial information

    The first plot might arguably be better but you couldn’t really see the way the ratio of overestimation decreased with more immigration as clearly as this one.

    rough plot of ratio vs actual

    edit: Damn that came out way smaller than I expected. It’s readable if you zoom in